LD13 Precinct Overview

A precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the 2024 State Senate race — margins, ticket-splitting, and turnout gaps that reveal where votes were lost and what it takes to flip this seat.

3,693net votes
needed to win

Mesnard (R) won by 7,383 net votes — 53.1% to 46.9% in the state senate race, while Trump carried the same district by just 1.2 points. That 5.1-point ticket-splitting gap is the core story: thousands of voters who chose Trump still crossed over to back Mesnard over Winters.

← Winters (D) 50% threshold Mesnard (R) →

Mesnard (R) won by 6.3 pts · Senate margin vs. presidential margin gap: −5.1 pts

The path to flipping LD13 runs through closing the ticket-split in moderate precincts and improving turnout in Dem-friendly precincts like Danyell, Commonwealth, and Carla Vista — all of which turned out 10–20 points below the district average.

7,384

Net votes lost
(Senate vs. Presidential)

−6.3%

Senate margin
Mesnard (R) win

−1.2%

Presidential margin
Trump (R) win

−5.1 pts

Ticket split gap
Winters underperformed Harris

Precincts where Winters
outran Harris

Key Takeaways

Sun Lakes problem

Oakwood CC (93.7%), Cottonwood CC (93.0%), and Sun Lakes CC (89.2%) are the district's highest-turnout precincts — all deeply Republican. Oakwood CC alone: −1,086 net votes.

Ticket-split is universal

42 of 45 precincts show Winters underperforming Harris. This isn't a base problem — it's a candidate-specific deficit across the board.

Turnout opportunity

Danyell (63.7%), Commonwealth (70.3%), and Carla Vista (70.3%) are Winters' best precincts but bottom-quartile turnout. Closing the gap = hundreds of net votes.

Most persuadable precincts

Compadre (−7.7 split), Azalea & Nightingale (−7.6), Horseshoe & Cottonwood CC (−7.5) had the biggest gap between senate and presidential — voters open to splitting are there.

Precinct-Level Analysis

Precinct ↕	Sen Margin ↓	Pres Margin ↕	Ticket Split ↕	Turnout ↕	Net Votes ↕	Profile	Message

DEM Dem-leaning GOP GOP-leaning TARGET High split + competitive GOTV Turnout drive Persuade Ticket-splitters ID+GOTV Mixed Standard Base contact

GOP-leaning precinct Dem-leaning precinct

Sorted high to low. Color reflects senate lean. Sun Lakes precincts are the district's highest-turnout and most Republican.

GOP senate lean Dem senate lean

Hover dots for details. Bubble size reflects net vote impact. Points below 0 = Winters underperformed Harris.

Target precincts: competitive senate margin (within 12 pts) AND high ticket-split (>4 pts). These are voters who split their ticket — most persuadable for 2026.

Precinct	City	Senate	Ticket Split	Turnout	Net Votes

Larger bar = larger ticket-split. These precincts had voters who backed Trump but not Mesnard — or Harris but not Winters.