Arizona Senate District 2 · Precinct Analysis
LD2 Precinct
Overview
A precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the 2024 State Senate race — margins, ticket-splitting, and turnout gaps that reveal the path to flipping this seat in 2026.
1,884
Net votes needed
Bolick (R) won by 3,767 votes — 50.8% to 47.2% — out of 102,509 cast. A net swing of under 1.9% flips LD2. The Green candidate took 2,076 votes, more than the entire margin.
← Republican
50% threshold
Democrat →
Dem-Leaning Precincts
—
Positive State Senate margin in 2024
GOP-Leaning Precincts
—
Negative State Senate margin in 2024
Avg Ticket-Split Bonus
—
Senate candidate outran presidential pick
Green Vote 2024
2,076
Exceeds full winning margin — consolidation is key
High-Turnout Precincts
—
Above 85% of active voter turnout
Precinct-Level Analysis
| Precinct ↕ | Sen Margin ↓ | Pres Margin ↕ | Ticket Split ↕ | Turnout ↕ | Net Votes ↕ | Profile |
|---|
Dem-leaning
GOP-leaning
Target precinct
↗ Hover dots for details. Bubble size reflects net vote impact.
Highest split (most persuadable)
Dem-margin
GOP-margin
↗ Larger bar = more voters who backed the Dem Senate candidate but not the presidential pick. These are your persuadables.